Bitcoin Market Update [2MAR22]
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Whales Ratio - Daily View
Chart Analysis:
Whales ratio (1) has declined again yesterday but it keeps forming higher lows indicating they maintain a high sell pressure.
Whales Ratio 30d Average (2) is lifting up since few days while the stablecoin reserves on exchange keeps declining, and the stablecoin supply maintains its level.
Total exchange Netflows (3) was negative yesterday, indicating more outflows than inflows, but again not big with almost 2,300 BTC.
Inspos Conclusion: Like yesterday. The daily whales ratio maintains high. Whales are selling. If we can cross 45k upwards while the whales ratio starts to decline that would be my bullish sign.
URL to chart: https://cryptoquant.com/prochart/vYNO3z1cx9LcSvg
Market Flow Analysis
Chart Analysis:
BTC (1) inflows maintains a high level, something that confirms my whales ratio. Stablecoin inflows (2) even less than outflows (3), at least related to the Spot market.
Inspos Conclusion: Also here, they are selling while the price maintains relatively stable, also a sign of distribution.
URL to chart: https://cryptoquant.com/prochart/czejQkfJy5OBF69
Miners Flow Analysis
Chart Analysis:
Miners outflows declined hard today while their reserves are rising now.
Inspos Conclusion: Miners have started a new 2 weeks cycle it seems and their outflows decline. Everything here looks good to me.
URL to chart: https://cryptoquant.com/prochart/W1qyCruejyfhoEh
Future Trading Analysis
Data Analysis:
Future traders are flipping to bullish now. Almost every funding rate is neutral or bullish. Even if we have received a bit more shorts in the past 12 hours, in the last 8 hours the demand for longs has rised. Leverage ratio has declined a bit, but maintains a high level. In the last 3 hours we have received almost 350 million in stablecoins on derivative exchanges.
We are accumulating late longs now, something that could be a challenge if we start to dump. Based on The Kingfisher we have a some big liquidation clusters waiting.
Inspos Conclusion: Future traders expecting more bullish price action.
URL to chart: https://www.coinglass.com/FundingRate
Exchange Order Walls
Analysis:
Bitfinex not limiting the way up anymore, but limiting the way down at 34.4k with a cluster of low volume orders.
Inspos Conclusion: Strange. They removed the upper walls at 45k like inviting us to long.
URL to chart:
https://www.tradinglite.com/
Inspos Conclusion and personal trade strategy
We have a whales ratio in hourly and daily looking solid high and indicating whales selling, our BTC inflows related to the spot market is rising, while the stablecoin inflows to derivative exchanges are rising too, with a positive funding rate and some big clusters of longs pending. Option traders closing calls or shifting forward while more puts are arriving for the next 2 weeks and last but not least, exchanges like Coinbase (btw Kraken too) have removed their walls at 45k.
We have a combination of bullish and bearish data. However, we have seen what happenend when they tried to pump and while SPX was pumping BTC didn’t follow this time. I see still a weak demand. I would expect here more a bearish price action because of all the puts we have received, the opportunity to liquidate all these longs and to get the dip “for free” (they don’t need even to dump their assets to reach lower levels and buy low and as we know, they are placing more longs (and Bitfinex big).
Anyway, its difficult to create a trade strategy here. As said yesterday too. A price above 45k with a declining whales ratio will flip me to bullish. I don’t see that yet.
I’m not sure if I will short, because it looks risky at the moment. I will tweet as soon as I see a pump indicating by whales ratio, but in case whales ratio doesn’t show anything I would expect a bearish price action.