Bitcoin Market Update [1MAR22]
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Whales Ratio - Daily View
Chart Analysis:
Whales ratio (1) has declined yesterday again but keeps forming higher lows indicating they maintain a high sell pressure.
Whales Ratio 30d Average (2) is lifting up since few days while the stablecoin reserves on exchange are declining, and the stablecoin supply maintains its level. Looks like it would be lift up a bit.
Total exchange Netflows (3) was negative yesterday, indicating more outflows than inflows, but compared to the huge pump, no big move here detected as expected.
Inspos Conclusion: The daily whales ratio maintains high. Whales are selling. If we can cross 45k upwards while the whales ratio starts to decline that would be my bullish sign.
URL to chart: https://cryptoquant.com/prochart/vYNO3z1cx9LcSvg
Market Flow Analysis
Chart Analysis:
Our flows are rising with a bullish price action. BTC (1) inflows are rising again, something that confirms my whales ratio. Stablecoin inflows (2) were not larger than outflows (3), at least related to the Spot market. If we check the chart below we can see the flows related to the derivative markets. We can see the gap between both and that yesterdays pump was more driven by drivates than spot. We received there big stablecoin inflows close before the pump, while open interest rised too.
Inspos Conclusion: I’m researching more related to derivates now, because I think that’s the key also for the next price action. BTC inflows rising, while they use derivates to pump the market up and sell the way up it seems.
URL to chart: https://cryptoquant.com/prochart/czejQkfJy5OBF69
Miners Flow Analysis
Chart Analysis:
Miners outflows rised today, but it matches to other big outflows. It seems they have a 2 weeks cycle to sell part of their BTC.
Inspos Conclusion: Miners are not in sell-off mode. Reserves are rising again even with such a big outflow. So not concerning me yet. We need to observe their reserves more in the coming days.
URL to chart: https://cryptoquant.com/prochart/W1qyCruejyfhoEh
Future Trading Analysis
Data Analysis:
Funding rates are neutral at the moment with a trend to bullish. Our Long/Short ratio indicates more longs than shorts in the last 12 hours. They have liquidated late longs and shorts today. Because of that the leverage ratio has declined. We have a bit more stablecoin inflows to derivative exchanges than outflows with a funding rate that is lifting up, indicating more longs than shorts happening.
Inspos Conclusion: Future traders expecting more bullish price action it seems.
URL to chart: https://www.coinglass.com/FundingRate
Exchange Order Walls
Analysis:
Bitfinex limiting the way up at 45.4k with a cluster of low volume orders, but no close (the next wall is at 34.4k) limitations the way down.
Inspos Conclusion: It seems 45k is still our local top. Interesting is, they are not really limiting the way down at 40ks with big volume anymore. Except FTX, but also here, no big volume.
URL to chart: https://www.tradinglite.com/
Inspos Conclusion and personal trade strategy
The market is showing a bullish and bearish face. Both could be solid, but the bullish one looks better due the recent price action.
At the moment I would say we have a local top at 45k and maybe a local bottom lower 40ks (40k - 42k). As we I can’t find any big volue there, it wouldn’t be a challenge to cross those. However, we are accumulating longs now, options indicating we should maintain our price level, except someone needs the max pain price of 39k. In such case we should see a rising sell pressure and we should start to retrace heading 42k first before we dump heading 40k.
To be honest, another day where I’m not going to trade. Only if we retest 45k and we fail, I would short there. In case we pump and cross 45k I would wait to let the price retrace a bit back to 45.5k to go long. But I’m still more expecting a bearish price action soon. I would prefer to miss 20% gains than to lose those.